Friday, August 19, 2011

"But that's the problem.

You can't just say "let's pretend it never happened", because it did happen. You complain that people cannot suspend their disbelief, but you live in a world of suspended disbelief. You can't just push everything to the side and keep going all the time, because there comes a point at which you have to acknowledge what's happened and learn from it."

I wish that this wouldn't keep playing back in my mind... but some people are just... complete repeats of others.

Tuesday, August 2, 2011

Does it ever happen...

...that someone says something to you, and it actually bothers you heaps, but you pretend that it was a joke, and then just sit there becoming more and more enraged?

That's me, right now.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Too true.

I remember having the idea of this graph in my head over the summer holidays, but I never ended up drawing it. Then, whilst doing some late night procrastination on Tumblr, I find that someone has made it:




Tuesday, May 17, 2011

Except when the economy collapses?

"Some women choose to follow men and some women choose to follow their dreams. If you’re wondering which way to go, remember that your career will never wake up and tell you that it doesn’t love you anymore."

The best articulation that I've heard so far of why I'm not worried about having to work 100 hours a week after I graduate.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

Apparently I look unhappy when I'm thinking...

... so I probably look very unhappy as I am writing this, but I assure you that I'm not as unhappy as I look.

I'm an economics student. You probably know this. I'm fairly open about it and even if I haven't told you, you probably noticed by the way I refer to opportunity costs or utility functions or game theory in normal conversation and attempt to relate them back to everyday life. The problem that I have increasingly is that people always ask me for my views on the economy: how do we fix the recession? what policy changes would you make? and inevitably I have no idea. This bothers me for at least two reasons. The first is that it's not a good look to have almost finished an economics degree and then to appear to look like you have no view on the economy. The second is that I don't feel much self-actualisation by getting to the end of the degree and realising that I, or perhaps we collectively, know very little about economics.

A lot of different, but all very intelligent people have put forward their own views on how to run the economy. Adam Smith, Karl Marx, John Maynard Keynes, Milton Friedman and so on. People who don't know a lot about any of the people tend to pick one and follow what they say blindly, thus there are Marxists and Keynesians and monetarists all happily floating around making policy around the place. But the problem becomes once you've read them all, and read them all closely, that they're actually all quite convincing, but also that there are a lot of misconceptions about what each one has to say. Adam Smith's entire framework was pre-industrial revolution; Marx wanted free education and 'fiercely progressive' tax systems with a top tax rate of 25%; Keynes wanted the government to spend money to stimulate the economy by injecting it into necessary spending which the private sector would not undertake; Friedman didn't hate poor people, but rather he believed that the economy should be designed such that those on welfare should be treated as the exception rather than the rule. None of them has completely unreasonable ideas, and as you start to know more about what each is saying, and know enough to know what the positives and negatives are of each approach, coming to a 'correct' conclusion becomes more an exercise in skills of argumentation than a weighing up of the merits of each approach. I think that I have thought about this too much and the lines have become a bit blurred. People with clear cut opinions are often underinformed.

The title of this blog is also a reference to an economic concept. In perfectly competitive markets, participants have perfect (complete) information and this allows them to make optimal choices in their situations. I named this blog 'imperfect information' in an attempt to rationalise ex post why I felt so terrible at the end of last year. The reason, I rationalised, was that I had been lied to (both the act and the omission). Had I been told the truth, then perhaps I would have made optimal choices in the situation that I was put in.

The problem with that analysis is that it assumes that I am the paradigmatic rational consumer upon which economic theory is based. I'm not. Looking back on it, had I been given perfect information, I probably would have made different bad choices. This is because, even though I put on a facade of being rational and emotionally unaffected, people who know me know that that's not the truth. Because the truth is that nothing hurts more than when you put yourself out there for someone, and they turn around and say "ok; I've seen what you have to offer, but I think I'm fine without you."

Not to worry. I don't think perfect information is even possible. Everyone puts on a facade. We're all trying to impress other people with our confidence and looks and wit that we don't tell them about the fact that we're secretly freaking out about all our study/work/personal insecurities. Not that I blame anyone; I probably do it too. It's just annoying because, as someone who tries to be honest all the time, I tend to assume that others are doing the same. I think this is why I'm unnecessarily starstruck by some people around me when I shouldn't be, and feel bad about myself for lacking these qualities which others don't even have. More suboptimal decisions.

So I think I'll just have to learn to deal with imperfect information. Given that, even if I did act rationally, my decisions would probably be suboptimal, I guess it wouldn't hurt to be a bit more irrational for now.

Perfect information

...not so great either.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Saturday, May 7, 2011

I really need to

- write opinions;
- sleep;
- stop failing at life.

Saturday, April 2, 2011

I am feeling

emotionally distant.

Friday, March 25, 2011

Advice on a Friday night



A brief foray into art

Yesterday I was talking to a friend who didn't quite understand the difference between an offer, agreement and a contract. In an attempt both to help her and to entertain myself during a four hour break between classes, I drew this comic strip type thing, which showed how a boy and a girl got together, labelled with the analogous stages of contract formation.

Anyway I was going to post it here, but it had an unexpectedly bad ending ("breach of contract: remember that specific performance is not an available remedy for personal service contracts"), which makes me seem more cynical than I actually am. Maybe.

Monday, March 14, 2011

My favourite insult

About an hour and a half ago, I went offline (shock! horror!) so that I could duraseal the three volumes of Tax Law legislation that I bought today. My parting message in one of my Facebook conversations was "ttyl dork".

A few minutes later, I received this text:
"Don't call me a dork, person durasealing their tax books!"

Good call. It is a rather dorky thing to do, prima facie. But they are massive and their covers are flimsy and if I took them to university in my bag twice a week then they would surely be destroyed, if left uncovered. So, my response (in my head) was:
"It's not dorky; it's sensible!"

However, having thought about it for a few moments, I realised that being sensible does not necessarily preclude something from being dorky. In fact, the two are hardly mutually exclusive. Depressingly, most things that I thought of immediately after making this realisation were both dorky and sensible. See below:



Thursday, March 10, 2011

Almost back to full health

As, I am sure, most readers of this blog are aware, I'm currently at university studying for conjoint Law and Commerce degrees. Since I was very young, I've wanted to be an investment banker, so the Commerce degree has always been the 'main' degree and the Law degree has been more of the 'bit on the side'. Consequently, my Law marks have always been lower because it has never been the focus, and I've had a certain disinterest in the law, atypical of one of its students.

This year, however, because I am one paper away from finishing the Commerce degree, but many papers away from finishing the Law degree, I'm taking only LLB papers. The result of this is that I'm at Law School all the time, and so it is as if I am only studying Law. The weird thing that I've noticed is how, if you sit back, you get absorbed into the machine that is Auckland Law School. It's kind of like being back at high school, being in a factory which churns out thousands of copies of the same kind of person (that's actually quite harsh, because there's more critical thinking/intellect at Law School than there was at high school, but there's a strong.. culture (?) which makes all the students extremely similar (and the same kind of person that is churned out is ...lawyers). I guess the point is how quickly, if you let yourself, you get absorbed into this Law School culture. I went to Law Careers Day today, along with all the others, and I'm going to a mooting meeting tonight: two things that I would never have expected myself to have done, say, this time last year.

...and at the end of this thought process, it's dawning on me that there's something completely Orwellian/1984-esque about this. I love Law School.

......quite honestly.

Sunday, March 6, 2011

This is comforting...



...because I am pretty sure that I'm at the bottom of my Agency Honours class.

So I got all that stuff done

and now I'm really sick. Fail.

Thursday, March 3, 2011

End of holidays/start of semester

It's so weird looking back on the holidays to think of how fast they've gone, and thus another year of university starts. Woohoo. I'm sure you can all hear the joy in my (typing) voice.

I feel like for the sake of completeness (because, for better or for worse, I am obsessed with formalities and completeness), I feel like I should write some kind of summary of the holidays/something about the start of the new semester, seeing as I started using this blog (kind of) to document the holidays and rant to something that was not a person, so that I would not annoy people with my incessant talking/whinging/ranting. But as it happens, I've stopped talking/whinging/ranting about life incessantly, and so it's actually turning out to be a lot more difficult to write this thing than I had initially envisaged. Instead, I will write a list of good/bad things that happened, kind of like the pros/cons lists that we had to write for the year 10 Enterprise Studies achievement standard on decision making. Because obviously my analytical skills are fantastic.

Plus
+ Economics Department work: interesting work, paid well, excellent people, learnt a lot, left a million times the economist that I was when I started.
+ Grey Lynn Law Office work: reeeeeeally interesting work, also helpful for learning how to relate to different people, quite impressive/inspiring to realise how much lawyers can help people/the law can be used for good... which is something that a student of contract/commercial/agency law tends not to see very much.
+ Trip to Melbourne: I love Melbourne. The food and fashion and architecture is amazing. I want to go back again and again and again and again.
+ 20th and 21st birthday parties: because is there anything that I'd rather be doing on a Saturday night? ...nope.
+ Seeing family: it was good to have the extended family come and stay over Christmas.. and now I'm craving ravioli.
+ A (large) few individuals: who probably know who they are. You are amazing and thank you for everything and love you long time and so on.
+ V-Day: kind of self-explanatory.

Minus
- Having to re-learn the importance of giving (and receiving) perfect information, and how people's actions are suboptimal when they don't know the full fact situation. Which is actually quite an important lesson to know when you're dealing with people. I think there is a quote somewhere about how the problem with people who tell the truth is that they assume everyone else is doing the same. Apparently I cannot assume that.

So there you have a reasonable summary of my holidays, which were actually, if you average out the happiness, probably my most enjoyable in a long time (the deep pits at the start were outweighed by the gains at the end - graph to come soon). Alas, the university semester has restarted, and already people are starting to get tired and stressed, which is annoying. I have quite a lot to do but I am aiming to be less stressed than other people, and will achieve this by... actually doing the work/reading etc. So I guess I have to read my Equity casebook as a bedtime story. Oh well. I think that I am on the verge of getting a cold and I hope that it just stays away until the weekend is over because there are too many dinners/parties etc on over the weekend. Once the university week starts again, it doesn't matter. How slack. University seems like it will be less stressful this year, with no commerce papers. Or maybe just stressful in a different way. I am sure that there will be much panicking at the Davis in the future.

And on that note, I really must go, so that I can get all my reading done in time for the law school barbecue and go to Equity and Land and sign up for the General Moot before 4pm. Goodnight!

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Nietzsche at Rakinos

"Because if we're not trying to be the best person that we can be, then what the fuck are we doing?"

Possibly the most blunt articulation of my life philosophy that I've heard, and I didn't even say it myself.

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Dear Emma, stop procrastinating.

A few highlights from letters to dead people:








(should've been addressed to Charles Dodgson really)


So, actually quite a few highlights. I love that website.

Saturday, January 22, 2011

Oh hi Julian Casablancas

I enjoy your rendition of I wish it was Christmas today so much that it almost doesn't bother me that you use the indicative mood where the subjunctive should be used.

Almost.


Monday, January 17, 2011

I broke my smoothie maker

I have a newfound love both for writing mathematical equations and graphs out of jokes and other things that aren't inherently quantitative. I hope to feature a few of these on this blog in the future.

To start it off, I found this on one of my friends' Facebook pages:
I didn't actually make this myself*, but it is of course true of my milkshake. The drink, that is.


*There are a few ways that you can tell this:
-the axes are not labelled;
-the units of the y-axis are not given;
-I would not have made the y-axis go up to 120 when it is measuring percentages in a situation where it is nonsensical to have percentages greater than 100%.


Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Review

I love fashion photography. I'm not really into modern art, but if fashion photography can be categorised as such (I know that you don't really find it in MoMA...) then it is my favourite kind. By that I mean that a lot of the time I think of it more as art than as something I'd want to wear, but of course there is an intersection.

Here is a review of some of my favourite fashion (+other) photos that I've found on the blogs that I follow. They're not my favourite ones of all time, or the clothes that I would most want to own, just photos that I like that have come up on my blogger news feed over the last few weeks.

Of course I must put Carol Han first, of Milk and Mode, because she replied to my tweet, which makes her automatically excellent. I also like that she has reminded me of velvet skirts and above the knee socks:



This is Miss Pandora (aka Louise Ebel). She's French which means that the clothes are a bit floatier and also that the background scenery is prettier:


This is Alix, from The Cherry Blossom Girl. She's Parisien (and takes a lot of Pandora's photos) and her photos of Paris are probably part of the reason that I love the city despite the fact that it houses lots of Socialist and Communist sympathisers. NB: the image that follows is actually in New York City, not Paris.


....right to the other end of the spectrum, here's Rumi Neely, of fashiontoast. Everyone seems to have an opinion on her, from "she's the most stylish person on the earth" to "she should stop loafing around taking photos and get a job". I think that I sit somewhere in the middle. Anyway, I like the way she wears her quilted leather shorts:


This is from the Superette store's Facebook album. It's not really fashion; I just like the photo:


Finally, this from Le Fashion (I wish they had called themselves 'La Mode' or something better...). If someone proposed to me with this Christian Dior ring, I'd say yes too:


So that is how I spend my non working time.

Speaking of work, I had an excellent day there today. I had another visitor today, which was pleasant. Additionally, I now have a new work computer with a flatter screen and a new keyboard, which was a thrill in and of itself, but then when I turned it on, what was the surprise that I found there waiting for me? MAPLE 13. I think that I'm in heaven in that office.

We have one and only one ambition. To be the best. What else is there?

-Lee Iacocca, of Chrysler.

Wisdom courtesy of the business school intranet home page. If you refresh it, it comes up with a new inspirational quote. This was the one with which I was greeted this morning.

Monday, January 10, 2011

Control

Fundamental to the study of economics is the idea of a market within which supply meets demand at some price/quantity level which then becomes the equilibrium. This is such a central idea for economics because it describes the world as one big market (the macroeconomy) within which there are many smaller markets (regional markets, final good markets, factor markets and so on). So it's a pretty big deal when the market fails. One of the main ways that a market can fail, and also a good reason why economic models aren't the best descriptors of how the world works, is when the information in the market is not perfect.

Perfect information is required because buyers and sellers in a market need to know all the information that will impact their decisions, so that they can make efficient decisions and thus get the market pricing and signalling correct. However, it is rarely ever the case that all such information is available. Usually the situation that exists is one of 'asymmetric information', where one side of the bargain has more information than the other side has, and so is able to manipulate the party with inferior information to take advantage of the situation. There are two resulting outcomes that can occur from this: adverse selection, and moral hazard.

The main example used for the analysis of imperfect information is health insurance. There is asymmetric information because while the customer is capable of knowing everything about themselves, the insurer is not. The insurer is trying to make a profit by signing up lots of low risk/good health customers, to subsidise the payouts that they have to make for the weaklings. However, healthy people don't find it hard to pay their health bills and so are less likely to purchase health insurance in the first place, and so the insurer is likely to get lumped with a lot of sickly people. This situation is adverse selection, as more of the 'low quality' product has entered the market than the 'high quality' product, the low quality product is more likely to be selected. Here, this means that while the insurer needs lots of healthy people to make a profit, because they don't have full information about the unhealthy ones, they end up with a lot of sickly people, and have to pay them out and reduce their profits.

The other issue that arises is that once people have bought health insurance, and so know that they won't have to pay their health bills, they become less concerned about getting sick, and accordingly do not take as good care of themselves as they would have otherwise. This is moral hazard: the adverse behaviour that occurs by allowing people to buy insurance for an event.

But what makes economics even better is that you can use it to look at situations which aren't obviously economic. Take, for example, the situation that follows. Because it is one of my favourite novels, I've used the characters from Persuasion and their backstories for assistance:

Let's introduce two characters to begin with: Anne Elliot and Frederick Wentworth. Anne, the daughter of Sir Walter Elliot, was a member of the landed gentry. Wentworth was a man of the navy, who, while not a member of the landed gentry, due to his profession and his calibre, was guaranteed social mobility. Despite this, Anne and Wentworth had a lot of interests in common and soon became romantically involved. Those who knew the couple were extremely envious. However, as the relationship went on, as always does happen, but people never seem to expect it, Anne and Wentworth had to work harder at the relationship. Although Wentworth was never made aware, because Anne didn't want to let it on, Anne was becoming distracted by her sister, who was becoming worryingly and increasingly ill. Understandably, receiving less attention, combined with the fact that Anne was a bit of a prude, upset Wentworth.

One night, without Anne, Wentworth attended a ball. Beaten down by Anne's apparent inattentiveness, Wentworth propositions Henrietta Musgrove, who disapproves initially, but later comes around. Distressed by the evening's happenings, Wentworth decides that he cannot tell Anne of what happened, and so leaves her.

Anne knew intuitively that there was something about the situation that didn't add up. Wentworth had told her that he was no good for her and so must leave her, but could only vaguely describe why. When pressed, the ambiguity remained. It was not until Charles Hayter, who was also interested in Henrietta, approached Anne, that she received near perfect information on the situation.

So for all that time, Anne had been moping because she thought that it was her own conduct that had driven Wentworth away. It was definitely a factor in why Wentworth left, but Wentworth put the nail in the coffin (to use one of my mother's expressions).

The issue remains, what should Anne do? For the first time since Wentworth had left her, she knew exactly what to say to him. How dare Wentworth treat her with such cold politeness, and make her feel like he was being generous in even talking to her, when he was the one who transgressed? But no, that would be too dramatic and impulsive for a character like Anne, who despite being very Romantic (capital R = the literary period, not loving, just to clarify) in her own mind, is dominated by a sense of duty to her family and to the prevailing social order. She doesn't act out of line. She takes it with a typically Augustan calm. She forgives him. She moves on.

Anne forgives Wentworth because she knows that he too has had a hard time and felt a lot of guilt about the situation, perhaps for different reasons, but still, unhappiness nonetheless. Bizarrely, the one thing that upset her the most was that Wentworth didn't just tell her the truth. The strange thing about the truth is that the more we try to conceal it, the more likely it seems to be that it will come out somehow. This is because the truth, as Winston Churchill said, is incontrovertible. Malice may attack it and ignorance may deride it, but in the end, there it is.

So I guess what that long and rambling narrative was meant to show is that as well as in relations between corporates and businesses and other money making entities, imperfect information can impact relations between friends and even my beloved Jane Austen characters. If Anne and Wentworth could have just told each other the truth, they could have saved each other a lot of economically suboptimal decisions further along the line. Although, I'm not going to lie, Jane Austen stories do lose their appeal somewhat when you think of them in terms of economics and market failure. And there is still another half of the novel to get through.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Indecisiveness and other related matters

salvete! As you've probably noticed, I've been messing around with the layout of this blog for a while. Finally I have something that I'm vaguely happy with, though it is annoying that the original layout that I had when I started this blog seemed to disappear from the layout selection list, and also annoying that the background images available to choose from are so unsophisticated. I think I'll have to write some HTML for this blog at some point, so that the design will be nicer (HTML: the things you learn from myspace...), but this is it for now. It's not as bright as the other one, but I think that my years have private schooling have drummed into me that writing should only be in black or navy blue. So there we go.

I'm also writing this post as a reminder that I've thought up two blog posts that I need to write:
-varium et mutabile semper femina, which I had posted, but then deleted, because I wanted to write a more complete entry on it;
-The deal behind the whole 'imperfect information' thing.

I also need to find a flash drive for work tomorrow. Where are these things when you need them?

Bonne nuit for now!

Monday, January 3, 2011

0100101

For the last six days, I've been on holiday at my family's beach house. Fortunately, the weather has been excellent so I've been able to spend the time outside, hopefully soaking in some vitamin D and generally enjoying the holiday period. This has been a huge relief, because I am by nature a city dweller, and I start to go a bit nuts when I find myself in remote (i.e. 1 hour north of AKL) places like Omaha. This is particularly the case when the weather is bad, because fine weather is pretty much a condition precedent to a beach holiday. However, many times have my parents driven me up to Omaha to stay there for weeks in the rain, with nothing to do. Accordingly, we now have quite a large collection of magazines to get us through rain at the beach. I always thought it would be easier just to drive home. My parents disagreed.

A few days ago, as I was lazily eating my breakfast, I started to flick through an old Hello! magazine, from when Prince William first started dating Kate Middleton (I am not quite sure why I am so keen on all these royal family stories; perhaps it is as they say that girls secretly want to be princesses). The article basically detailed all her background, as told by a 'close friend'. It painted one of those classic and almost cliche stories of the girl who was ignored all through school then went on to befriend a prince at university. Charming. The bit that interested me was that apparently when she was in high school, there was a practice in place whereby the boys of the school would rank the attractiveness of the girls from one to ten, and tell them. Kate was a seven.

This then brought back a high school memory of my own. At Dio, at the end of fifth form, it was quite common for quite a lot of girls (typically the very bright ones, or the ones whose parents wanted them to marry into a rich family) to leave the school and go to King's, another of the country's top schools. King's College is a private boys' school from years 9-11, and then there are boys and girls for years 12 and 13. As it happened, a lot of my Advanced Maths class was leaving to go to King's, and those who were leaving talked incessantly about King's from as soon as they found out that they had been accepted, until the end of the year. Anyway, someone had heard that King's College too had the practice where the boys rated the girls according to their appearance. Immediately, many of the prospective King's girls laughed it off, and one began a lengthly speech essentially about how women shouldn't see themselves as objects to men, and somehow linked this in with the ranking system. I wasn't fooled. I could feel it. Panic was in the air.

I never did find out whether my friends were rated. In fact, I never really thought about it again for a while. However, last year I was in the car with two of my male friends, who were rating seemingly all the girls in our year of Law. I probed them for more information on the rating system. Apparently, the 'marks' that the girls receive go from one (ugly) to ten (beautiful), and obey a skewed bell curve distribution. The mean is seven (because apparently at our age most females are in the prime of their lives) and you can't give out fractions.

I went home and pondered the information I had just been given. The conclusion that I came to, however, is that despite how seriously my two friends were taking their rating system, it simply fails to provide any useful information. If the distribution of female attractiveness is really bell shaped, meaning that a perfect ten is extremely rare. However, most men are married, and to women who I'd say are objectively less than tens. So, giving a girl a rating out of ten is useless, because the ratings are not given relative to the score at which that the man would 'settle'. For example, saying 'that girl is a seven' is unhelpful unless you add 'but I'd be happy with an eight'. The whole dilemma is further confounded by the (scandalous!) fact that some women's personalities add to or detract from their overall attractiveness. The interpretation of the figure is just too uncertain.

It's also unnecessary. Attraction is binary. Yes or no. 0 or 1.